{"id":15301,"date":"2026-04-24T08:33:15","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T08:33:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.expanamarkets.com\/?post_type=insight&#038;p=15301"},"modified":"2026-04-28T14:50:27","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T14:50:27","slug":"heavy-rainfall-disrupts-coffee-production-in-colombia","status":"publish","type":"insight","link":"https:\/\/www.expanamarkets.com\/insights\/article\/heavy-rainfall-disrupts-coffee-production-in-colombia\/","title":{"rendered":"Heavy Rainfall Disrupts Coffee Production in Colombia"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<!-- .module.article-rich-text: start -->\n<div id=\"\" class=\"module article-rich-text pt-32 md:pt-48 xl:pt-56 pb-16 md:pb-20 xl:pb-24 hidden show-small:block show-medium:block show-large:block [p_+_p]:mb-24\">\n\t<p>During Q1 2026, unusual weather conditions observed in Colombia initially looked to be impactful for coffee production in the country as recent production and export statistics reflected a downtrend. Yet, subsequent weather patterns may minimize any downward revisions in Colombian coffee production.<\/p>\n<p>Previously, flooding and increased rainfall were believed to have curtailed coffee production across the country that is one of the top global producers of quality, green arabica beans in South America according to multiple sources noting\u00a0the excessive rainfall\u00a0which persisted until just recently.<\/p>\n<p>However, generally high coffee prices have stimulated advanced farm care, according to Expana\u2019s fundamentals team (formerly\u00a0<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.expanamarkets.com\/product\/tropical-research-services\/\">Tropical Research Services<\/a><\/span>) who noted in the most recent crop survey that more favorable weather conditions are in the forecast.<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s more, the rainfall may have only delayed coffee production and exports\u2014rather than made significant impacts to total production and export numbers, according to Expana\u2019s Senior Manager of Coffee Analysis, Oliver Broster.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRain came early, and everyone was worried,\u201d said Broster. \u201cBut it dried out, and the pattern flipped. So, the net effect: It works out OK&#8230; The main crop should be good again. While it\u2019s not ideal, it\u2019s not bad either.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Broster also recognized the recent phenomenon of slow coffee sales from certain producing regions.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s not really weather related,\u201d continued Broster. \u201cMore people are not selling coffee as quickly\u2014they&#8217;re selling more slowly\u2014not liking fact that prices are going lower.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>On April 24, contract values of arabica bucked the sideways trend\u2014pulsing higher 4.61% from the previous day. While prices in each origin are subject to varying factors, nearby contract prices for arabica coffee on NY ICE most recently closed at 316.35 USc\/Lb, according to the\u00a0Expana platform\u00a0which shows a rollercoaster of a year for the commodity\u2019s value. Over the last five years, contract prices are up approximately 131%.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cGlobal export numbers are strong,\u201d said Broster. \u201cBut not in Brazil, and Colombia is down too.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>While producers in certain regions have grown accustomed to the last five years of higher\u00a0<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.expanamarkets.com\/markets\/tropical-softs\/coffee-prices\/\">coffee prices<\/a><\/span>\u00a0(and thus have held their coffee hoping to see those prices again), other producers in places like Honduras instead took advantage of the current price levels when the harvest came in, said Broster.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn Colombia, the coffee\u2019s there, but it\u2019s taking more time to come to market,\u201d shared Broster. \u201cBut in Honduras, producers saw great price and sold. I think they&#8217;ve done the best out of everyone. But the crop will be frontloaded there, and Honduras will run out of coffee earlier than others. For example, exports are running ahead of where they were last year, and [where they] have been historically. It does appear that the crop will be front loaded, which makes sense given high price levels and the market structure.\u201d<\/p>\n<h5><span class=\"SubTitle\">Colombia\u2019s Coffee Conundrum<\/span><\/h5>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/library.urnerbarry.com\/Images\/%7BBC6D4E5B-62E9-47DE-A9DF-93753CCB859E%7D.png\" width=\"845\" height=\"543\" \/><\/p>\n<p>On April 10, lower production and export numbers out of Colombia caused some market panic.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBetween January and March, production reached 2.51 million 60-Kg bags, compared to 3.78 million in the same period of 2025, representing a drop of approximately 33.5%,\u201d according to Germ\u00e1n Baham\u00f3n, the National Federation of Coffee Growers (<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/GermanBahamon\/status\/2042531496536256665\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Fedecaf\u00e9<\/a><\/span>) general manager.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the released statistics, Expana\u2019s fundamentals team is of the opinion that Colombia\u2019s coffee numbers will even out as the year progresses.<\/p>\n<p>Previously, flooding had been a problem across multiple areas in Colombia\u2019s coffee growing regions, noted Market Reporter, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.expanamarkets.com\/authors\/sammy-rolls\/\">Sammy Rolls<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/library.urnerbarry.com\/Images\/Colombia_Rainfall_Anomaly_2026_1.jpg\" width=\"855\" height=\"384\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em>Rainfall percentage change from the 30-year average in Columbia&#8217;s primary coffee region, during January, February, and March 2026. Credit: Expana&#8217;s Weather &amp; Crop Researcher, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.expanamarkets.com\/authors\/james-tyler\/\">James Tyler<\/a><\/span>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Meteorological conditions during early February brought persistent, intense precipitation that triggered river overflow and widespread inundation, with some areas seeing rainfall exceeding 40-70 MM\/day and flooding affecting large portions of northern Colombia between February 1-3. In Cordoba alone, flooding from late January onward impacted hundreds of thousands of residents, with emergency agencies reporting that over 80% of the department was affected and tens of thousands of families displaced as of mid-February to March 2026. The pattern of persistent rainfall continued into March, sustaining flood conditions and prolonging agricultural disruption across rural areas, according to Rolls who cited data from\u00a0Expana\u2019s weather team.<\/p>\n<p>However, there is a discrepancy between rain and flooding in coffee areas versus other areas in the country, Broster reminded.<\/p>\n<p>Colombia\u2019s coffee sector saw a sharp setback in March, as persistent and heavy rainfall weighed on production in the world\u2019s largest supplier of washed Arabica, according to Rolls. Output fell 29% year-over-year to 754,000 60-Kg bags, down from 1.06 million a year earlier, according to the\u00a0<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/federaciondecafeteros.org\/estadisticas-cafeteras\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Fedecaf\u00e9 statistics<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>However, Expana\u2019s numbers differ from those released by Fedecaf\u00e9, according to Broster.<\/p>\n<p>Each year, April produces the lowest amount of coffee as the new harvest begins this month. So, the months before April are often marked by generally higher production and exports.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn foreign trade, the lower availability of coffee has a direct translation. Accumulated exports at the end of March reached 2.56 million bags, compared to 3.59 million in the same period of 2025, with a reduction of -29%,\u201d wrote Baham\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<p>The Expana Benchmark Price assessment of Colombian Arabica differentials reflects the tightening supply backdrop in the market. At the end of December 2025, the assessment stood at USc 22\/Lb. But, as of April 20, 2026, it has since nearly doubled, reaching USc 40\/Lb.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe sharp rise aligns with deteriorating production conditions and weather-related disruptions in Colombia, which have reduced availability and supported stronger physical coffee differentials in early 2026,\u201d according to Rolls.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNeighboring coffee producers have shown a mixed but generally more resilient weather picture compared with Colombia. In Peru, production conditions have been relatively steadier, with rainfall patterns described as more seasonal and less disruptive in early 2026, supporting a broadly stable outlook for Arabica flows, although localized variability in the northern growing areas has still required monitoring. In Ecuador, conditions have been broadly neutral to slightly supportive, with no major widespread weather shocks reported and output expectations remaining comparatively steady versus Colombia\u2019s weather-hit decline. In contrast, Brazil has seen generally favorable rainfall across key Arabica regions during late 2025 and early 2026, with improved soil moisture supporting crop development and underpinning expectations of a stronger harvest cycle, making conditions materially better than Colombia\u2019s heavily rain-disrupted production environment this season,\u201d according to Rolls.<\/p>\n<p>Image source: Shutterstock<\/p>\n\t<\/div>\n\t<!-- .module.article-rich-text: end -->\n\n\n<!-- .module.faqs-list: start -->\n<div  class=\"module faq-list pt-0 pb-40 md:pb-64 xl:pb-80 hidden show-small:block show-medium:block show-large:block type-full\">\n\t<div class=\"container lg:grid lg:grid-cols-12 lg:px-80\">\n\n\t\t<div class=\"inner col-span-12 lg:col-span-10 lg:col-start-2 lg:col-end-12 bg-fn-ModBgLightTheme\">\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"text-[27px] font-light leading-8 mb-24 md:text-[34px] md:leading-10 text-coreDarkGreen\" data-scroll-class=\"expanaFadeInUp\">\n\t\t\t\t\tFAQs\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"accordion first:border-t border-b border-digitalDarkGrey20 text-coreDarkGreen block\" data-scroll-class=\"fadeIn\" data-scroll-delay=\"500\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"py-16 pr-16 md:py-24 cursor-pointer accordion-toggle\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"flex justify-between\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"text-md leading-6 font-labgMed\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWhat is happening to Colombian Arabica differentials?\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"toggle-icon *:size-[20px] flex items-center transition-transform\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"25\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 25\" fill=\"none\">\n\t<path class=\"icon-chevron-down\" d=\"M12.0582 14.6383L19.4082 7.28828C19.6582 7.03828 19.9499 6.91745 20.2832 6.92578C20.6166 6.93411 20.9082 7.06328 21.1582 7.31328C21.4082 7.56328 21.5332 7.85495 21.5332 8.18828C21.5332 8.52161 21.4082 8.81328 21.1582 9.06328L13.4832 16.7633C13.2832 16.9633 13.0582 17.1133 12.8082 17.2133C12.5582 17.3133 12.3082 17.3633 12.0582 17.3633C11.8082 17.3633 11.5582 17.3133 11.3082 17.2133C11.0582 17.1133 10.8332 16.9633 10.6332 16.7633L2.93322 9.06328C2.68322 8.81328 2.56238 8.51745 2.57072 8.17578C2.57905 7.83412 2.70822 7.53828 2.95822 7.28828C3.20822 7.03828 3.49988 6.91328 3.83322 6.91328C4.16655 6.91328 4.45822 7.03828 4.70822 7.28828L12.0582 14.6383Z\" fill=\"currentcolor\"\/>\n<\/svg>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"overflow-hidden max-h-0 transition-all delay-100 duration-500 accordion-content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"pt-8 pb-24\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"*:leading-6\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Physical coffee differentials have tightened sharply. Expana&#8217;s Benchmark Price assessment for Colombian Arabica differentials nearly doubled between December 2025 and April 2026, moving from USc 22\/lb to USc 40\/lb \u2014 reflecting the reduced availability of Colombian beans in the market.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"accordion first:border-t border-b border-digitalDarkGrey20 text-coreDarkGreen block\" data-scroll-class=\"fadeIn\" data-scroll-delay=\"500\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"py-16 pr-16 md:py-24 cursor-pointer accordion-toggle\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"flex justify-between\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"text-md leading-6 font-labgMed\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWhy are Colombian producers holding back coffee from the market?\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"toggle-icon *:size-[20px] flex items-center transition-transform\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"25\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 25\" fill=\"none\">\n\t<path class=\"icon-chevron-down\" d=\"M12.0582 14.6383L19.4082 7.28828C19.6582 7.03828 19.9499 6.91745 20.2832 6.92578C20.6166 6.93411 20.9082 7.06328 21.1582 7.31328C21.4082 7.56328 21.5332 7.85495 21.5332 8.18828C21.5332 8.52161 21.4082 8.81328 21.1582 9.06328L13.4832 16.7633C13.2832 16.9633 13.0582 17.1133 12.8082 17.2133C12.5582 17.3133 12.3082 17.3633 12.0582 17.3633C11.8082 17.3633 11.5582 17.3133 11.3082 17.2133C11.0582 17.1133 10.8332 16.9633 10.6332 16.7633L2.93322 9.06328C2.68322 8.81328 2.56238 8.51745 2.57072 8.17578C2.57905 7.83412 2.70822 7.53828 2.95822 7.28828C3.20822 7.03828 3.49988 6.91328 3.83322 6.91328C4.16655 6.91328 4.45822 7.03828 4.70822 7.28828L12.0582 14.6383Z\" fill=\"currentcolor\"\/>\n<\/svg>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"overflow-hidden max-h-0 transition-all delay-100 duration-500 accordion-content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"pt-8 pb-24\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"*:leading-6\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>It is less about weather and more about price expectations. Producers who have grown accustomed to five years of elevated prices are reluctant to sell at current levels, hoping prices will recover. This is slowing the flow of coffee to market independently of any weather-related supply issues.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"accordion first:border-t border-b border-digitalDarkGrey20 text-coreDarkGreen block\" data-scroll-class=\"fadeIn\" data-scroll-delay=\"500\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"py-16 pr-16 md:py-24 cursor-pointer accordion-toggle\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"flex justify-between\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"text-md leading-6 font-labgMed\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tHow have neighbouring countries been affected?\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"toggle-icon *:size-[20px] flex items-center transition-transform\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"25\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 25\" fill=\"none\">\n\t<path class=\"icon-chevron-down\" d=\"M12.0582 14.6383L19.4082 7.28828C19.6582 7.03828 19.9499 6.91745 20.2832 6.92578C20.6166 6.93411 20.9082 7.06328 21.1582 7.31328C21.4082 7.56328 21.5332 7.85495 21.5332 8.18828C21.5332 8.52161 21.4082 8.81328 21.1582 9.06328L13.4832 16.7633C13.2832 16.9633 13.0582 17.1133 12.8082 17.2133C12.5582 17.3133 12.3082 17.3633 12.0582 17.3633C11.8082 17.3633 11.5582 17.3133 11.3082 17.2133C11.0582 17.1133 10.8332 16.9633 10.6332 16.7633L2.93322 9.06328C2.68322 8.81328 2.56238 8.51745 2.57072 8.17578C2.57905 7.83412 2.70822 7.53828 2.95822 7.28828C3.20822 7.03828 3.49988 6.91328 3.83322 6.91328C4.16655 6.91328 4.45822 7.03828 4.70822 7.28828L12.0582 14.6383Z\" fill=\"currentcolor\"\/>\n<\/svg>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"overflow-hidden max-h-0 transition-all delay-100 duration-500 accordion-content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"pt-8 pb-24\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"*:leading-6\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>The picture is mixed but generally more resilient than Colombia. Brazil has seen favourable conditions and is expected to deliver a stronger harvest. Peru and Ecuador have both had broadly stable outlooks with no major disruptions. Colombia&#8217;s weather-driven decline stands out as the exception in the region rather than the rule.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<!-- .module.faqs-list: end -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":107,"featured_media":11267,"template":"","tags":[138,181],"insight-theme":[166],"insight_topic":[113,298],"news_topic":[],"class_list":["post-15301","insight","type-insight","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-coffee-and-cocoa","tag-weather","insight-theme-weekly-market-insights","insight_topic-coffee-cocoa-tea","insight_topic-weather"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.6 (Yoast SEO v27.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Heavy Rainfall Disrupts Coffee Production in Colombia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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