{"id":15296,"date":"2026-04-22T08:33:15","date_gmt":"2026-04-22T08:33:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.expanamarkets.com\/?post_type=insight&#038;p=15296"},"modified":"2026-04-28T14:18:45","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T14:18:45","slug":"low-sugar-prices-to-incentivize-brazilian-ethanol-production-exports","status":"publish","type":"insight","link":"https:\/\/www.expanamarkets.com\/insights\/article\/low-sugar-prices-to-incentivize-brazilian-ethanol-production-exports\/","title":{"rendered":"Low Sugar Prices to Incentivize Brazilian Ethanol Production, Exports"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<!-- .module.article-rich-text: start -->\n<div id=\"\" class=\"module article-rich-text pt-32 md:pt-48 xl:pt-56 pb-16 md:pb-20 xl:pb-24 hidden show-small:block show-medium:block show-large:block [p_+_p]:mb-24\">\n\t<p>After more than a month of speculation that high oil prices would incentivize ethanol production in Brazil, it seems that market participants\u2019 assumption may come true, according to Expana\u2019s fundamentals team.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe supply and demand, as well as trade flows, look very comfortable for both the short and mid-term, so <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.expanamarkets.com\/markets\/tropical-softs\/sugar-sweeteners\/\">sugar prices<\/a><\/span> are not exactly mirroring oil every day,\u201d said Expana\u2019s Sugar &amp; Ethanol Analyst, Rodrigo Bermejo. \u201cHowever, we are reaching a critical point&#8230; Prices are too low, and Center-South Brazil can theoretically divert more sucrose toward ethanol.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>So, if ethanol production takes away from sugar production, the supply and demand fundamentals in the sugar market would change\u2014prompting a higher price floor for the sweetener. Actions in the world\u2019s top sugar producing nation of Brazil are being watched closely by the Expana crew.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAdditionally, the BRL has been strengthening against the USD, which increases ethanol\u2019s competitiveness versus sugar to be exported,\u201d added Bermejo.<\/p>\n<p>Over the last three months, global sugar futures on NY ICE have gone through a bit of a rollercoaster ride: As of April 22, nearby contract prices finished up ~1%\u00a0from the previous day to 13.57 USc\/Lb, according to\u00a0the Expana platform. Previously on March 24, contract prices surged to 15.88 USc\/Lb.<\/p>\n<p>Almost every day, news outlets have reported on\u00a0the Middle East conflict\u00a0as it relates to commodity markets:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRising energy prices are bullish for sugar, because they can encourage cane mills to produce less sugar and more ethanol, a cane-based biofuel,\u201d according to\u00a0<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/brazil-ethanol-sector-ready-fill-demand-higher-blends-2026-04-10\/\">Reuters<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>Still, Expana\u2019s fundamentals team on the ground in Brazil says the situation might not be so straightforward: While low sugar prices would logically incentivize the use of sugarcane for biofuels during a time of high energy costs, Brazilian government intervention and a large sugarcane production year may keep sugar prices around current levels, reported\u00a0Expana.<\/p>\n<h5><span class=\"SubTitle\">Pressure at the Pump?<\/span><\/h5>\n<p>Despite rising energy costs around the world, Brazil\u2019s consumer gasoline prices have remained relatively flat after an initial spike in March. Previously, Expana\u2019s team was watching gas prices for domestic increases in Brazil, and for news out of the state-controlled energy corporation called Petrobras. However, now, the concern has been muted.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;After nearly two months of conflict, the market consensus is that Petrobras is unlikely to take any action before the conflict is resolved,\u201d said Bermejo. \u201cEven once it is over, any price adjustment would likely be limited, and expectations for a significant increase remain low.\u201d<\/p>\n<h5><span class=\"SubTitle\">Looking Back<\/span><\/h5>\n<p>On March 19, Expana\u2019s editorial team interviewed Bermejo about the convergence of elevated sugar prices and energy costs during the Middle East conflict.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEveryone [was] trying to understand if Petrobras [would] increase [gas prices] domestically or not,\u201d said Bermejo.<\/p>\n<p>At the time, Bermejo said that sugar prices would come down unless Petrobras makes a change.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe still have production surplus [over consumption]&#8230;\u201d he reminded. \u201cConversely, if [Petrobras officials] announce a price increase, [sugar prices] should adjust higher.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As of March 16, \u201cBrazil&#8217;s state-controlled oil company Petrobras [was] yet to increase local gasoline prices, but&#8230; raised diesel rates,\u201d reported Reuters.<\/p>\n<p>Previously, Petrobras increased diesel prices the day after the Brazilian government zeroed gasoline taxes, according to Bermejo who noted this as the reason for unchanged prices at the pump.<\/p>\n<p>Bermejo confirmed speculation that the Brazilian government\u2014hoping to be viewed in a positive light amongst voters\u2014is working to keep gas prices low ahead of an election year.<\/p>\n<p>While Bermejo said that Brazilian ethanol production is in fact set to increase, he noted that it is largely due to more corn ethanol production, along with an abundant sugarcane harvest.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Image source: Adobe<\/p>\n\t<\/div>\n\t<!-- .module.article-rich-text: end -->\n\n\n<!-- .module.faqs-list: start -->\n<div  class=\"module faq-list pt-0 pb-40 md:pb-64 xl:pb-80 hidden show-small:block show-medium:block show-large:block type-full\">\n\t<div class=\"container lg:grid lg:grid-cols-12 lg:px-80\">\n\n\t\t<div class=\"inner col-span-12 lg:col-span-10 lg:col-start-2 lg:col-end-12 bg-fn-ModBgLightTheme\">\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"text-[27px] font-light leading-8 mb-24 md:text-[34px] md:leading-10 text-coreDarkGreen\" data-scroll-class=\"expanaFadeInUp\">\n\t\t\t\t\tFAQs\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"accordion first:border-t border-b border-digitalDarkGrey20 text-coreDarkGreen block\" data-scroll-class=\"fadeIn\" data-scroll-delay=\"500\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"py-16 pr-16 md:py-24 cursor-pointer accordion-toggle\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"flex justify-between\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"text-md leading-6 font-labgMed\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWhy are low sugar prices linked to ethanol production in Brazil?\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"toggle-icon *:size-[20px] flex items-center transition-transform\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"25\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 25\" fill=\"none\">\n\t<path class=\"icon-chevron-down\" d=\"M12.0582 14.6383L19.4082 7.28828C19.6582 7.03828 19.9499 6.91745 20.2832 6.92578C20.6166 6.93411 20.9082 7.06328 21.1582 7.31328C21.4082 7.56328 21.5332 7.85495 21.5332 8.18828C21.5332 8.52161 21.4082 8.81328 21.1582 9.06328L13.4832 16.7633C13.2832 16.9633 13.0582 17.1133 12.8082 17.2133C12.5582 17.3133 12.3082 17.3633 12.0582 17.3633C11.8082 17.3633 11.5582 17.3133 11.3082 17.2133C11.0582 17.1133 10.8332 16.9633 10.6332 16.7633L2.93322 9.06328C2.68322 8.81328 2.56238 8.51745 2.57072 8.17578C2.57905 7.83412 2.70822 7.53828 2.95822 7.28828C3.20822 7.03828 3.49988 6.91328 3.83322 6.91328C4.16655 6.91328 4.45822 7.03828 4.70822 7.28828L12.0582 14.6383Z\" fill=\"currentcolor\"\/>\n<\/svg>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"overflow-hidden max-h-0 transition-all delay-100 duration-500 accordion-content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"pt-8 pb-24\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"*:leading-6\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Brazilian cane mills decide how much sugarcane to direct toward sugar versus ethanol. When sugar prices are low and energy prices are high, the economics shift toward ethanol. That flexibility makes Brazil&#8217;s sugar and energy markets more tightly connected than almost anywhere else, a price move in one can ripple directly into the other.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"accordion first:border-t border-b border-digitalDarkGrey20 text-coreDarkGreen block\" data-scroll-class=\"fadeIn\" data-scroll-delay=\"500\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"py-16 pr-16 md:py-24 cursor-pointer accordion-toggle\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"flex justify-between\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"text-md leading-6 font-labgMed\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWhy haven&#8217;t rising oil prices pushed sugar prices higher?\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"toggle-icon *:size-[20px] flex items-center transition-transform\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"25\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 25\" fill=\"none\">\n\t<path class=\"icon-chevron-down\" d=\"M12.0582 14.6383L19.4082 7.28828C19.6582 7.03828 19.9499 6.91745 20.2832 6.92578C20.6166 6.93411 20.9082 7.06328 21.1582 7.31328C21.4082 7.56328 21.5332 7.85495 21.5332 8.18828C21.5332 8.52161 21.4082 8.81328 21.1582 9.06328L13.4832 16.7633C13.2832 16.9633 13.0582 17.1133 12.8082 17.2133C12.5582 17.3133 12.3082 17.3633 12.0582 17.3633C11.8082 17.3633 11.5582 17.3133 11.3082 17.2133C11.0582 17.1133 10.8332 16.9633 10.6332 16.7633L2.93322 9.06328C2.68322 8.81328 2.56238 8.51745 2.57072 8.17578C2.57905 7.83412 2.70822 7.53828 2.95822 7.28828C3.20822 7.03828 3.49988 6.91328 3.83322 6.91328C4.16655 6.91328 4.45822 7.03828 4.70822 7.28828L12.0582 14.6383Z\" fill=\"currentcolor\"\/>\n<\/svg>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"overflow-hidden max-h-0 transition-all delay-100 duration-500 accordion-content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"pt-8 pb-24\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"*:leading-6\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>The link exists, but it is not automatic. Sugar supply and demand fundamentals are currently comfortable, and a large sugarcane harvest is keeping a lid on prices despite the theoretical case for diverting more cane toward ethanol. The incentive is there. The market just has not moved decisively to act on it yet.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"accordion first:border-t border-b border-digitalDarkGrey20 text-coreDarkGreen block\" data-scroll-class=\"fadeIn\" data-scroll-delay=\"500\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"py-16 pr-16 md:py-24 cursor-pointer accordion-toggle\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"flex justify-between\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"text-md leading-6 font-labgMed\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWhat role does Petrobras play?\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"toggle-icon *:size-[20px] flex items-center transition-transform\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"25\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 25\" fill=\"none\">\n\t<path class=\"icon-chevron-down\" d=\"M12.0582 14.6383L19.4082 7.28828C19.6582 7.03828 19.9499 6.91745 20.2832 6.92578C20.6166 6.93411 20.9082 7.06328 21.1582 7.31328C21.4082 7.56328 21.5332 7.85495 21.5332 8.18828C21.5332 8.52161 21.4082 8.81328 21.1582 9.06328L13.4832 16.7633C13.2832 16.9633 13.0582 17.1133 12.8082 17.2133C12.5582 17.3133 12.3082 17.3633 12.0582 17.3633C11.8082 17.3633 11.5582 17.3133 11.3082 17.2133C11.0582 17.1133 10.8332 16.9633 10.6332 16.7633L2.93322 9.06328C2.68322 8.81328 2.56238 8.51745 2.57072 8.17578C2.57905 7.83412 2.70822 7.53828 2.95822 7.28828C3.20822 7.03828 3.49988 6.91328 3.83322 6.91328C4.16655 6.91328 4.45822 7.03828 4.70822 7.28828L12.0582 14.6383Z\" fill=\"currentcolor\"\/>\n<\/svg>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"overflow-hidden max-h-0 transition-all delay-100 duration-500 accordion-content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"pt-8 pb-24\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"*:leading-6\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Petrobras sets domestic gasoline prices in Brazil. If it raises them, ethanol becomes more competitive at the pump, which pulls more cane away from sugar production and tightens supply. The market has been watching for that signal for weeks. The current consensus is that Petrobras will not move until the Middle East conflict is resolved, and even then, any adjustment is expected to be limited.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<!-- .module.faqs-list: end -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":107,"featured_media":15297,"template":"","tags":[137],"insight-theme":[166],"insight_topic":[317,299],"news_topic":[],"class_list":["post-15296","insight","type-insight","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-sugar-sweeteners","insight-theme-weekly-market-insights","insight_topic-middle-east-conflict","insight_topic-sugar-and-sweeteners"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.6 (Yoast SEO v27.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Low Sugar Prices to Incentivize Brazilian Ethanol Production, Exports<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Low sugar prices and high energy costs are pushing Brazilian cane mills toward ethanol production, but government intervention, a large harvest, and Petrobras inaction are keeping the sugar market well supplied.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.expanamarkets.com\/insights\/article\/low-sugar-prices-to-incentivize-brazilian-ethanol-production-exports\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Low sugar prices and high energy costs are pushing Brazilian cane mills toward ethanol production, but government intervention, a large harvest, and Petrobras inaction are keeping the sugar market well supplied.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" 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