{"id":15056,"date":"2026-03-30T14:24:53","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T14:24:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.expanamarkets.com\/?post_type=insight&#038;p=15056"},"modified":"2026-04-07T14:54:41","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T14:54:41","slug":"2026-global-macro-forecast-middle-east-recession-risk","status":"publish","type":"insight","link":"https:\/\/www.expanamarkets.com\/insights\/article\/2026-global-macro-forecast-middle-east-recession-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 Global Macro Forecast:\u00a0The Middle East\u00a0Conflict\u00a0and Other Trends You\u00a0Can\u2019t\u00a0Ignore\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"Overview\u00a0\">\n<!-- .module.article-rich-text: start -->\n<div id=\"\" class=\"module article-rich-text pt-16 md:pt-20 xl:pt-24 pb-10 md:pb-10 xl:pb-10 hidden show-small:block show-medium:block show-large:block [p_+_p]:mb-24\">\n\t<p style=\"text-align: left;\" aria-level=\"2\"><b><span data-contrast=\"none\">Webinar Overview<\/span><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:false,&quot;134233118&quot;:false,&quot;134245418&quot;:true,&quot;134245529&quot;:true,&quot;335557856&quot;:16777215,&quot;335559738&quot;:192,&quot;335559739&quot;:96}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span class=\"TextRun SCXW90361061 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW90361061 BCX0\">On March\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW90361061 BCX0\">19<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW90361061 BCX0\">, 2026, Expana VP of Price Forecasting Tom Bundgaard delivered a live macro forecast\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW90361061 BCX0\">webinar<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW90361061 BCX0\">\u00a0in response to the escalating Middle East conflict. Brent crude had surpassed $112 per barrel following Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure, up from $103 just days prior. Bundgaard assessed what this means for global commodity markets, inflation, and GDP.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW90361061 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:160}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p aria-level=\"3\"><strong>Meet the Speakers:\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Symbol&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\uf0b7&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"3\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-contrast=\"none\">Tom Bundgaard <\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"none\">&#8211; Vice President of Price Forecasting, Expana<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Symbol&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\uf0b7&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"4\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><strong>Simon Duke <\/strong>&#8211; Managing Editor, Expana<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Image source: Adobe<\/p>\n\t<\/div>\n\t<!-- .module.article-rich-text: end --><\/div>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed alignwide is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"2026 Global Macro Forecast Trends You Can\u2019t Ignore\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Bg67OgJj6hE?feature=oembed&#038;enablejsapi=1&#038;origin=https:\/\/www.expanamarkets.com\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:32px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n<div id=\"Takeaways\">\n<!-- .module.introduction: start -->\n<div  class=\"module introduction theme-lightGreen pt-10 md:pt-10 xl:pt-10 pb-10 md:pb-10 xl:pb-10 hidden show-small:block show-medium:block show-large:block relative z-10\">\n\n\t<div class=\"container md:grid grid-cols-12\">\n\n\t\t<div class=\"content col-span-12 md:col-span-8 \">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"h3\" data-scroll-class=\"expanaFadeInUp\">Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"description mt prose\" data-scroll-class=\"expanaFadeInUp\" data-scroll-delay=\"500\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<ul>\n<li><span data-contrast=\"none\">Brent crude surpassed $112\/barrel following Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure across the Middle East. Energy markets are the fastest transmission channel from geopolitics to inflation.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559738&quot;:280,&quot;335559739&quot;:80}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-contrast=\"none\">EU GDP growth could fall by approximately one percentage point. Even if the conflict ends soon, logistical recovery\u00a0&#8211;\u00a0mine clearance, shipping insurance, port congestion\u00a0&#8211;\u00a0is unlikely to normalise before Q3 2026.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559738&quot;:280,&quot;335559739&quot;:80}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-contrast=\"none\">Two recession indicators are being widely overlooked: US unemployment has risen ahead of every recession since the 1950s, and the Treasury yield curve has been inverted\u00a0&#8211;\u00a0a signal that has preceded every US recession on record.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559738&quot;:280,&quot;335559739&quot;:80}\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559738&quot;:280,&quot;335559739&quot;:80}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-contrast=\"none\">The current macro environment reflects three compounding shocks: weak underlying fundamentals, tariff pressures, and now the Middle East escalation. The risk is not any single shock in isolation, but the cumulative strain on the global economy.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559738&quot;:280,&quot;335559739&quot;:80}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-contrast=\"none\">Markets will find supply workarounds. Alternative pipelines and rerouted shipping could offset\u00a0roughly 50%\u00a0of the disruption\u00a0&#8211;\u00a0but this reduces, rather than resolves, the supply impact.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<!-- .module.introduction: end --><\/div>\n\n<div id=\"EnergyMarketImpact\">\n<!-- .module.article-rich-text: start -->\n<div id=\"\" class=\"module article-rich-text pt-16 md:pt-20 xl:pt-24 pb-10 md:pb-10 xl:pb-10 hidden show-small:block show-medium:block show-large:block [p_+_p]:mb-24\">\n\t<h5 aria-level=\"2\">Energy Market Impact: Crude Oil and the Cascade\u00a0<\/h5>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">The most immediate effect of the conflict has been a sharp rise in energy prices. Brent crude reached $112\/barrel at the time of recording, with Iranian forces continuing to target oil and gas infrastructure and disrupt commercial shipping across the region.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:160}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Bundgaard outlined how the energy shock transmits through the broader economy:<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:160}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:480,&quot;335559991&quot;:240,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Crude oil and natural gas prices rise, pushing up input costs across plastics, aluminium, fertilizers, and transportation<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:100}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:480,&quot;335559991&quot;:240,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"2\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Higher input costs flow through to producer price inflation (PPI) and consumer price inflation (CPI)<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:100}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:480,&quot;335559991&quot;:240,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"3\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Rising inflation makes it harder for central banks to cut interest rates; in a more severe scenario, rates go up<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:100}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:480,&quot;335559991&quot;:240,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"4\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Higher rates\u00a0and higher inflation\u00a0reduce household disposable income as fuel and energy costs rise<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:100}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:480,&quot;335559991&quot;:240,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"5\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Reduced consumer spending\u00a0weighs on GDP growth<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:100}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.expanamarkets.com\/product\/features\/commodity-price-forecasts\/\">Expana\u2019s\u00a0forecasting models<\/a><\/span>\u00a0had already flagged rising crude oil price risk earlier in the year,\u00a0identifying\u00a0December 2025 prices as unsustainably low. Clients who acted on that analysis in January 2026 secured hedging positions for the full year before the current price spike.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:160}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h5 aria-level=\"2\">GDP Outlook: Scenarios and Downside Risk\u00a0<\/h5>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">EU GDP growth currently stands at approximately 1.45%, with US growth at 2.03%. After a period of divergence, the two have recently converged and are now moving together.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:160}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Bundgaard\u2019s base estimate is a decline of\u00a0roughly one\u00a0percentage point in EU GDP growth. At around 0.45%, that would\u00a0represent\u00a0a significant slowdown but stop short of a technical recession. He was clear that this estimate carries real\u00a0uncertainty, and\u00a0holds only if the conflict does not extend well beyond summer 2026.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:160}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p aria-level=\"3\"><b><span data-contrast=\"none\">Duration is the critical variable<\/span><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559738&quot;:280,&quot;335559739&quot;:140}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Iran\u2019s strategic interest is in prolonging the conflict, not resolving it quickly. Attacks on energy infrastructure and commercial shipping point to a strategy of sustained economic disruption rather than rapid escalation toward a decisive outcome.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:160}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Even if hostilities end soon, the logistical recovery is\u00a0substantial. Bundgaard estimates a minimum of four months after conflict resolution before supply chains normalise, accounting for mine clearance, the restoration of shipping insurance rates, and port congestion. Meaningful recovery is unlikely before Q3 2026.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:160}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p aria-level=\"3\"><b><span data-contrast=\"none\">Market adaptability as a partial offset<\/span><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559738&quot;:280,&quot;335559739&quot;:140}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Commodity markets have a strong\u00a0track record\u00a0of finding their way around supply disruptions. Europe replaced Russian gas with US LNG after 2022, despite the significant logistical complexity involved.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:160}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">In the current situation, alternative pipelines and rerouted shipping could offset around 40 to 50% of the disrupted supply volume. That matters, but it reduces the problem rather than solving it.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:160}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h5 aria-level=\"2\">Recession Risk: The Indicators Most Forecasters Are Ignoring\u00a0<\/h5>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Bundgaard separated macro risks into two categories: unpredictable, high-impact events (black swan events) and well-documented risks that are visible in advance but tend to be underweighted in mainstream analysis (grey rhinos)<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:160}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">The Middle East escalation falls into the first category. Two other indicators, currently getting limited attention, fall into the second.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:160}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p aria-level=\"3\"><b><span data-contrast=\"none\">US unemployment<\/span><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559738&quot;:280,&quot;335559739&quot;:140}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Going back to the 1950s, every sustained rise in US unemployment has been followed by a recession. Unemployment is currently rising. Bundgaard acknowledged this cycle could prove to be an exception, but noted the historical record offers no precedent for a sustained unemployment increase that did not eventually lead to a recession.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:160}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p aria-level=\"3\"><b><span data-contrast=\"none\">Inverted Treasury yield curve<\/span><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559738&quot;:280,&quot;335559739&quot;:140}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">The US Treasury yield curve has inverted ahead of every recession on record, a pattern supported by more than 100 years of data. Bundgaard noted that this indicator tends to get attention when the inversion first occurs, then drops out of the conversation as months pass without an immediate downturn. The recession arrives later anyway.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:160}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Both indicators point to elevated recession risk in the second half of 2026.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:160}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h5 aria-level=\"2\">Compounding Macro Stress:\u00a0Four\u00a0Shocks at Once\u00a0<\/h5>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">The Middle East conflict is the\u00a0fourth\u00a0major shock to hit the global economy in\u00a0a short period. The\u00a0previous\u00a0three\u00a0were:<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:160}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:480,&quot;335559991&quot;:240,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"6\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Weak underlying macro fundamentals: slowing growth, compressed consumer demand, and the unemployment and yield curve signals described above<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:100}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:480,&quot;335559991&quot;:240,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"7\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Tariff pressures, which the global economy absorbed without tipping into recession, despite predictions of significant economic impact<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:100}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:480,&quot;335559991&quot;:240,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"8\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">The\u00a0Ukraine-Russia conflict<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:100}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Bundgaard\u2019s view is that the energy disruption alone is unlikely to trigger a recession. The concern is cumulative: each\u00a0additional\u00a0shock reduces the economy\u2019s capacity to absorb the next one. The longer the conflict runs, the higher the probability that all three together push the economy into contraction.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:160}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Expana\u2019s\u00a0models have consistently assigned a higher probability to a genuine growth slowdown than the consensus forecast. Most economists Bundgaard tracks still point to stable growth as the base case. His models favour a decline scenario, and that gap from consensus has become harder to dismiss in recent weeks.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:160}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h5 aria-level=\"2\">Indicators to Monitor\u00a0<\/h5>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Bundgaard\u00a0identified\u00a0five variables worth tracking closely in the coming months:<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:160}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:480,&quot;335559991&quot;:240,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"9\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Crude oil price trajectory: whether the current spike stabilises or continues rising as supply disruption persists<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:100}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:480,&quot;335559991&quot;:240,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"10\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Conflict duration: the single most important determinant of economic impact; a short conflict has limited lasting\u00a0effect,\u00a0a prolonged one does not<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:100}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:480,&quot;335559991&quot;:240,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"11\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Inflation data (CPI and PPI): the speed at which energy costs\u00a0transmit\u00a0into consumer prices will\u00a0determine\u00a0the pressure on interest rates<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:100}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:480,&quot;335559991&quot;:240,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"12\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">US unemployment and the Treasury yield curve: both\u00a0warrant\u00a0closer attention than they are currently receiving<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:100}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:480,&quot;335559991&quot;:240,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"13\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Logistical recovery indicators: shipping insurance rates, port congestion data, and rerouting volumes as proxies for supply chain normalisation<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:100}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Expana tracks all of the above on an ongoing basis, alongside more than 36,000 commodity price series globally. To gain access to Expana&#8217;s expert insights and world-leading commodity price forecasting &#8211; <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.expanamarkets.com\/request-a-demo\/\">get in touch<\/a><\/span>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t<\/div>\n\t<!-- .module.article-rich-text: end --><\/div>\n\n<div id=\"FAQs\">\n<!-- .module.faqs-list: start -->\n<div  class=\"module faq-list pt-16 md:pt-20 xl:pt-24 pb-40 md:pb-64 xl:pb-80 hidden show-small:block show-medium:block show-large:block type-full\">\n\t<div class=\"container lg:grid lg:grid-cols-12 lg:px-80\">\n\n\t\t<div class=\"inner col-span-12 lg:col-span-10 lg:col-start-2 lg:col-end-12 bg-fn-ModBgLightTheme\">\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"text-[27px] font-light leading-8 mb-24 md:text-[34px] md:leading-10 text-coreDarkGreen\" data-scroll-class=\"expanaFadeInUp\">\n\t\t\t\t\tFAQs\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"accordion first:border-t border-b border-digitalDarkGrey20 text-coreDarkGreen block\" data-scroll-class=\"fadeIn\" data-scroll-delay=\"500\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"py-16 pr-16 md:py-24 cursor-pointer accordion-toggle\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"flex justify-between\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"text-md leading-6 font-labgMed\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tHow long will commodity prices be affected by the Middle East conflict?\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"toggle-icon *:size-[20px] flex items-center transition-transform\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"25\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 25\" fill=\"none\">\n\t<path class=\"icon-chevron-down\" d=\"M12.0582 14.6383L19.4082 7.28828C19.6582 7.03828 19.9499 6.91745 20.2832 6.92578C20.6166 6.93411 20.9082 7.06328 21.1582 7.31328C21.4082 7.56328 21.5332 7.85495 21.5332 8.18828C21.5332 8.52161 21.4082 8.81328 21.1582 9.06328L13.4832 16.7633C13.2832 16.9633 13.0582 17.1133 12.8082 17.2133C12.5582 17.3133 12.3082 17.3633 12.0582 17.3633C11.8082 17.3633 11.5582 17.3133 11.3082 17.2133C11.0582 17.1133 10.8332 16.9633 10.6332 16.7633L2.93322 9.06328C2.68322 8.81328 2.56238 8.51745 2.57072 8.17578C2.57905 7.83412 2.70822 7.53828 2.95822 7.28828C3.20822 7.03828 3.49988 6.91328 3.83322 6.91328C4.16655 6.91328 4.45822 7.03828 4.70822 7.28828L12.0582 14.6383Z\" fill=\"currentcolor\"\/>\n<\/svg>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"overflow-hidden max-h-0 transition-all delay-100 duration-500 accordion-content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"pt-8 pb-24\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"*:leading-6\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW255493452 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW255493452 BCX0\">The duration depends on how long the Middle East conflict persists and the extended <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW255493452 BCX0\">logistics<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW255493452 BCX0\">\u00a0impacts. Even after resolution, supply chain disruptions can last several months.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW255493452 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:false,&quot;134233118&quot;:false,&quot;335557856&quot;:16777215,&quot;335559738&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:300}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"accordion first:border-t border-b border-digitalDarkGrey20 text-coreDarkGreen block\" data-scroll-class=\"fadeIn\" data-scroll-delay=\"500\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"py-16 pr-16 md:py-24 cursor-pointer accordion-toggle\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"flex justify-between\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"text-md leading-6 font-labgMed\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWhich commodity markets are most directly exposed by the Middle East conflict?\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"toggle-icon *:size-[20px] flex items-center transition-transform\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"25\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 25\" fill=\"none\">\n\t<path class=\"icon-chevron-down\" d=\"M12.0582 14.6383L19.4082 7.28828C19.6582 7.03828 19.9499 6.91745 20.2832 6.92578C20.6166 6.93411 20.9082 7.06328 21.1582 7.31328C21.4082 7.56328 21.5332 7.85495 21.5332 8.18828C21.5332 8.52161 21.4082 8.81328 21.1582 9.06328L13.4832 16.7633C13.2832 16.9633 13.0582 17.1133 12.8082 17.2133C12.5582 17.3133 12.3082 17.3633 12.0582 17.3633C11.8082 17.3633 11.5582 17.3133 11.3082 17.2133C11.0582 17.1133 10.8332 16.9633 10.6332 16.7633L2.93322 9.06328C2.68322 8.81328 2.56238 8.51745 2.57072 8.17578C2.57905 7.83412 2.70822 7.53828 2.95822 7.28828C3.20822 7.03828 3.49988 6.91328 3.83322 6.91328C4.16655 6.91328 4.45822 7.03828 4.70822 7.28828L12.0582 14.6383Z\" fill=\"currentcolor\"\/>\n<\/svg>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"overflow-hidden max-h-0 transition-all delay-100 duration-500 accordion-content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"pt-8 pb-24\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"*:leading-6\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW132656533 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW132656533 BCX0\">Crude oil and natural gas face the most immediate impact. Secondary effects are already showing up in plastics, aluminium, fertilizers, and transportation costs. Inflation in these input categories will work through to consumer goods over the coming weeks and months.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW132656533 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:120}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"accordion first:border-t border-b border-digitalDarkGrey20 text-coreDarkGreen block\" data-scroll-class=\"fadeIn\" data-scroll-delay=\"500\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"py-16 pr-16 md:py-24 cursor-pointer accordion-toggle\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"flex justify-between\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"text-md leading-6 font-labgMed\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tCan you predict grey rhinos?\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"toggle-icon *:size-[20px] flex items-center transition-transform\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"25\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 25\" fill=\"none\">\n\t<path class=\"icon-chevron-down\" d=\"M12.0582 14.6383L19.4082 7.28828C19.6582 7.03828 19.9499 6.91745 20.2832 6.92578C20.6166 6.93411 20.9082 7.06328 21.1582 7.31328C21.4082 7.56328 21.5332 7.85495 21.5332 8.18828C21.5332 8.52161 21.4082 8.81328 21.1582 9.06328L13.4832 16.7633C13.2832 16.9633 13.0582 17.1133 12.8082 17.2133C12.5582 17.3133 12.3082 17.3633 12.0582 17.3633C11.8082 17.3633 11.5582 17.3133 11.3082 17.2133C11.0582 17.1133 10.8332 16.9633 10.6332 16.7633L2.93322 9.06328C2.68322 8.81328 2.56238 8.51745 2.57072 8.17578C2.57905 7.83412 2.70822 7.53828 2.95822 7.28828C3.20822 7.03828 3.49988 6.91328 3.83322 6.91328C4.16655 6.91328 4.45822 7.03828 4.70822 7.28828L12.0582 14.6383Z\" fill=\"currentcolor\"\/>\n<\/svg>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"overflow-hidden max-h-0 transition-all delay-100 duration-500 accordion-content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"pt-8 pb-24\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"*:leading-6\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"NormalTextRun AdvancedProofingIssueV2Themed SCXW181506709 BCX0\">By definition, yes<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW181506709 BCX0\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW181506709 BCX0\">&#8211;<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW181506709 BCX0\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW181506709 BCX0\">that&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW181506709 BCX0\">\u00a0what makes them different from black swan events. Grey rhinos are high-impact risks that are well-documented and visible in advance; the problem is not a lack of\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun ContextualSpellingAndGrammarErrorV2Themed SCXW181506709 BCX0\">information,<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW181506709 BCX0\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW181506709 BCX0\">it&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW181506709 BCX0\">\u00a0a lack of attention. Rising unemployment and an inverted yield curve are textbook examples: the data is public, the historical pattern is clear, and yet both tend to get dismissed or forgotten as time passes without an immediate crisis. The risk\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW181506709 BCX0\">doesn&#8217;t<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW181506709 BCX0\">\u00a0go away just because people stop talking about it.<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"accordion first:border-t border-b border-digitalDarkGrey20 text-coreDarkGreen block\" data-scroll-class=\"fadeIn\" data-scroll-delay=\"500\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"py-16 pr-16 md:py-24 cursor-pointer accordion-toggle\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"flex justify-between\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"text-md leading-6 font-labgMed\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tHow can procurement teams manage price risk in this environment?\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"toggle-icon *:size-[20px] flex items-center transition-transform\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"25\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 25\" fill=\"none\">\n\t<path class=\"icon-chevron-down\" d=\"M12.0582 14.6383L19.4082 7.28828C19.6582 7.03828 19.9499 6.91745 20.2832 6.92578C20.6166 6.93411 20.9082 7.06328 21.1582 7.31328C21.4082 7.56328 21.5332 7.85495 21.5332 8.18828C21.5332 8.52161 21.4082 8.81328 21.1582 9.06328L13.4832 16.7633C13.2832 16.9633 13.0582 17.1133 12.8082 17.2133C12.5582 17.3133 12.3082 17.3633 12.0582 17.3633C11.8082 17.3633 11.5582 17.3133 11.3082 17.2133C11.0582 17.1133 10.8332 16.9633 10.6332 16.7633L2.93322 9.06328C2.68322 8.81328 2.56238 8.51745 2.57072 8.17578C2.57905 7.83412 2.70822 7.53828 2.95822 7.28828C3.20822 7.03828 3.49988 6.91328 3.83322 6.91328C4.16655 6.91328 4.45822 7.03828 4.70822 7.28828L12.0582 14.6383Z\" fill=\"currentcolor\"\/>\n<\/svg>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"overflow-hidden max-h-0 transition-all delay-100 duration-500 accordion-content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"pt-8 pb-24\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"*:leading-6\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW81659272 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.expanamarkets.com\/product\/features\/commodity-price-forecasts\/\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW81659272 BCX0\">Expana&#8217;s<\/span><\/a><\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW81659272 BCX0\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.expanamarkets.com\/product\/features\/commodity-price-forecasts\/\">\u00a0forecasting models<\/a><\/span> flagged rising crude oil price risk in January 2026, ahead of the current escalation. Procurement teams with access to forward price forecasts and commodity price benchmarks are better placed to time purchasing decisions, secure hedging strategies, and build stronger supplier negotiation positions.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW81659272 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:120}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<!-- .module.faqs-list: end --><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":126,"featured_media":15074,"template":"","tags":[],"insight-theme":[236,166],"insight_topic":[171,317],"news_topic":[],"class_list":["post-15056","insight","type-insight","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","insight-theme-commodity-hub","insight-theme-weekly-market-insights","insight_topic-global-insights","insight_topic-middle-east-conflict"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized 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