{"id":14580,"date":"2026-02-23T12:10:08","date_gmt":"2026-02-23T12:10:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.expanamarkets.com\/?post_type=insight&#038;p=14580"},"modified":"2026-03-06T12:15:09","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T12:15:09","slug":"cbam-causes-europes-nitrogen-fertilizer-imports-to-plummet-in-jan-following-record-highs-in-dec","status":"publish","type":"insight","link":"https:\/\/www.expanamarkets.com\/insights\/article\/cbam-causes-europes-nitrogen-fertilizer-imports-to-plummet-in-jan-following-record-highs-in-dec\/","title":{"rendered":"CBAM Causes Europe\u2019s Nitrogen Fertilizer Imports to Plummet in Jan, Following Record Highs in Dec"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<!-- .module.article-rich-text: start -->\n<div id=\"\" class=\"module article-rich-text pt-32 md:pt-48 xl:pt-56 pb-40 md:pb-64 xl:pb-80 hidden show-small:block show-medium:block show-large:block [p_+_p]:mb-24\">\n\t<p>EU farmers and agri-co-op union Copa-Cogeca has warned of a \u201cdramatic and unprecedented collapse in EU nitrogen fertilizer imports\u201d since the EU\u2019s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) took effect at the beginning of 2026.<\/p>\n<p>The organization says that January 2026 imports registered by the European Commission amounted to a mere 16% of the prior year\u2019s figures, or 179,877 tonnes compared to January 2025\u2019s 1.18 million tonnes.<\/p>\n<p>Copa-Cogeca says that the EU traditionally imports over 30% of its nitrogen fertilizer.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA reduction of this magnitude cannot be absorbed without consequences. It poses a direct threat to the stability of agricultural production across the EU, destabilising markets by triggering anticipatory behaviours, as seen in December 2025 just prior to the mechanism\u2019s implementation,\u201d it claims.<\/p>\n<h5>Spike in late 2025 imports before implementation<\/h5>\n<p>December 2025 imports, meanwhile, amounted to some 2.53 million tonnes, around 107% higher than the five-year average of 1.22 million tonnes. In other words, there was clearly significant stocking-up taking place in December, before the new carbon tax became effective.<\/p>\n<p>Fertilizers Europe, an industry group representing the continents\u2019 own manufacturers, notes that this figure represents nearly 30% of the EU\u2019s annual consumption of nitrogen fertilizers (8.3 million tonnes as of 2023). \u201cIn fact, the December imports were the highest ever recorded,\u201d it claims.<\/p>\n<p>The experience of at least one major fertilizer supplier seems to validate that the European market was clearly bringing sales ahead in the final months of 2025. In a conference call discussing Q4 results with analysts and investors last week, Yara International\u2019s head of market intelligence Dag Mo commented on the strength of European demand in the quarter, stating \u201cwe think a large part of that was due to positioning ahead of CBAM; already from November\u2026 there was quite strong interest in buying.\u201d<\/p>\n<h5>Heightened risk of margin squeeze<\/h5>\n<p>The dynamic has predictably led to higher prices. Copa-Cogeca claims domestic fertilizer prices in January 2026 were 25% above the 2024 average. Meanwhile, according to Expana\u2019s Vincent Braak, crop analyst, the ammonium\u2011nitrate price in France this winter is roughly double what it was five years earlier, although it remains well below the 2022 peak driven by the surge in European gas prices after the start of the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFertilizers are the heaviest variable cost for arable crop cultivation in Europe, so sustained upward pressure on those prices directly erodes farm margins,\u201d observes Braak. \u201cAlthough the European Commission has signaled a possible retroactive suspension of the application of the CBAM for fertilizers (a measure not implemented as of today), the increase in tariffs on Russian fertilizers imports in July 2026 and ongoing supply\u2011chain difficulties are still likely to keep production costs in Europe structurally higher.\u201d<\/p>\n<h5>A contentious carbon tax on imported goods<\/h5>\n<p>Given that the EU already has stringent emissions requirements in place for goods produced domestically, the CBAM is an attempt to level the playing field with foreign producers by imposing an \u201cadjustment mechanism\u201d charge on imports of certain carbon-intensive goods.<\/p>\n<p>As Expana has\u00a0previously reported, both member states and civil society have warned that the CBAM\u2019s implementation was likely to create distortions in a tight fertilizer market in early 2026.<\/p>\n\t<\/div>\n\t<!-- .module.article-rich-text: end -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":14797,"template":"","tags":[120],"insight-theme":[166],"insight_topic":[165],"news_topic":[],"class_list":["post-14580","insight","type-insight","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-metals-and-industrials","insight-theme-weekly-market-insights","insight_topic-industrials-and-metals"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.6 (Yoast SEO v27.6) - 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