{"id":11994,"date":"2025-08-20T15:44:19","date_gmt":"2025-08-20T15:44:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.expanamarkets.com\/?post_type=insight&#038;p=11994"},"modified":"2026-02-26T16:58:53","modified_gmt":"2026-02-26T16:58:53","slug":"chinas-canola-tariffs-spark-scepticism","status":"publish","type":"insight","link":"https:\/\/www.expanamarkets.com\/insights\/article\/chinas-canola-tariffs-spark-scepticism\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s Canola Tariffs Spark Scepticism"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<!-- .module.article-rich-text: start -->\n<div id=\"\" class=\"module article-rich-text pt-32 md:pt-48 xl:pt-56 pb-40 md:pb-64 xl:pb-80 hidden show-small:block show-medium:block show-large:block [p_+_p]:mb-24\">\n\t<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW99020823 BCX8\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW99020823 BCX8\">Market sources told\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW99020823 BCX8\">Expana<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW99020823 BCX8\">\u00a0that China is still planning to impose a 75.8% anti-dumping duty on Canadian <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.expanamarkets.com\/markets\/grains-oilseeds-fats\/vegetable-oil-prices\/rapeseed-oil-prices\/\">canola<\/a><\/span> seed from August 14, a move that industry sources say will make new sales to China virtually impossible. The announcement triggered a sharp sell-off in ICE canola futures and Matif rapeseed prices, with IJX25 dropping to its lowest level since April and briefly entering oversold territory, brokers and analysts reported. Several traders noted that the Canada-EU arbitrage opened rapidly, with European buyers shifting focus toward Canadian-origin seed driven by its relative &#8216;cheapness&#8217; compared to domestic supply.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW99020823 BCX8\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"EOP SCXW99020823 BCX8\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\"><span class=\"TextRun SCXW41955711 BCX8\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41955711 BCX8\">In the absence of Chinese demand, participants said the EU is now the primary outlet for displaced Canadian canola, resulting in a glut of supply weighing on regional values and crush margins. Some crushers told\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW41955711 BCX8\">Expana<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41955711 BCX8\">\u00a0they are considering a move to alternative oilseeds such as sunflower, which currently offers more attractive margins. If this shift becomes widespread, several buyers noted it could further tighten rapeseed oil availability<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41955711 BCX8\">,<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41955711 BCX8\">\u00a0even amid strong European crop performance.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW41955711 BCX8\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW49254876 BCX8\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW49254876 BCX8\">Conversely, contacts in China told\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW49254876 BCX8\">Expana<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW49254876 BCX8\">\u00a0that local rapeseed oil prices have surged\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW49254876 BCX8\">amid<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW49254876 BCX8\">\u00a0concerns about securing future supply. Although Australia is preparing to resume canola exports to China after a five-year absence, market participants cautioned that these volumes may be insufficient to meet China&#8217;s demand.\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW49254876 BCX8\">Expana<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW49254876 BCX8\">\u00a0sources indicated at least 250,000\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW49254876 BCX8\">mt<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW49254876 BCX8\">\u00a0of Australian canola could move as a \u2018trial\u2019 shipment, with most traders viewing the arrangement as \u201cvirtually a done deal.\u201d However, Chinese buyers are said to be actively seeking other origins, such as Ukraine, fuelling what several traders described as a \u201cscramble for supply.\u201d<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW49254876 BCX8\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW121665731 BCX8\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW121665731 BCX8\">Despite the headline risk, several players and brokers expressed scepticism to\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW121665731 BCX8\">Expana<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW121665731 BCX8\">\u00a0regarding the duration of China\u2019s tariff measures. Many highlighted parallels with previous Chinese trade tactics, notably during electric vehicle tariff negotiations with the EU, where anti-dumping announcements were used as leverage and then quickly dropped. The prevailing sentiment among market players is that China may be using tariff threats as bargaining power ahead of scheduled negotiations with Canada in two weeks&#8217; time. One analyst commented that, if Canadian seed is blocked for an extended period, prices would need to fall further, which they haven\u2019t done thus far, to redirect surplus supply globally, potentially underpinning the transient nature of the policy as some believe.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW121665731 BCX8\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"EOP SCXW121665731 BCX8\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\"><span class=\"TextRun SCXW174164906 BCX8\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW174164906 BCX8\">Market sources also suggested that the announcement, while causing immediate volatility, provided a short-term buying opportunity and is unlikely to materially alter supply and demand fundamentals in the medium term. For the EU, specific concern centres on the potential for significant changes in the rapeseed oil GM\/non-GM supply-demand balance, particularly within food and feed markets.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW174164906 BCX8\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"EOP SCXW121665731 BCX8\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\"><span class=\"EOP SCXW174164906 BCX8\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\"><span class=\"TextRun SCXW84345783 BCX8\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW84345783 BCX8\">Additionally<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW84345783 BCX8\">,\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW84345783 BCX8\">Expana<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW84345783 BCX8\">has\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW84345783 BCX8\">learned that Canada\u2019s agriculture and trade ministers met with representatives from the canola industry and farming groups on 13 August, highlighting the significance and uncertainty around ongoing developments.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW84345783 BCX8\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"EOP SCXW121665731 BCX8\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\"><span class=\"EOP SCXW174164906 BCX8\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\"><span class=\"TextRun SCXW231871670 BCX8\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW231871670 BCX8\">In summary, while China\u2019s tariff announcement has intensified near-term volatility and market speculation, most participants\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW231871670 BCX8\">have\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW231871670 BCX8\">told\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW231871670 BCX8\">Expana<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW231871670 BCX8\">\u00a0they are focused on the outcome of upcoming negotiations. The risk remains that either an extension or reversal of China&#8217;s anti-dumping duty could materially impact canola and rapeseed trade flows\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW231871670 BCX8\">for the<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW231871670 BCX8\">\u00a0remainder of the season.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\t<\/div>\n\t<!-- .module.article-rich-text: end -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":46,"featured_media":11997,"template":"","tags":[151,241],"insight-theme":[202,166],"insight_topic":[112,265],"news_topic":[],"class_list":["post-11994","insight","type-insight","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-oilseeds","tag-tariffs","insight-theme-featured","insight-theme-weekly-market-insights","insight_topic-grains-oils-and-oilseeds","insight_topic-tariffs"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.6 (Yoast SEO v27.6) - 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