Despite being an American citizen and business owner living in Florida, Blue Creek Produce Owner, Roger Riehm’s tomato farm is located in Jalisco, Mexico—selling cherry and grape tomatoes into the US during a time of elevated tariffs specifically targeting Mexican-grown tomatoes.

“It’s been a ‘Yo-Yo’ market, and it’s been changing daily over the last six months,” said Riehm during a phone call with Expana.

“It’s been a challenging year. Whether it’s finding trucks, rides, freight rates… I’ve been doing this 25 years, and this last year has been one of the most difficult… The tariff on tomatoes has been crazy over last eight months. I understand that the idea is to protect growers in Florida… But for me, I’m still dealing with that [tariff coming] right out of my checking account on every shipment.”

Riehm wondered where his tariff payments were going, and whether he had any shot at a tariff refund. Although, he acknowledged that the “Tomato Suspension Agreement” had been a noteworthy factor since 2004. Since being lifted, the US simply charges a ~17% tariff on any Mexican tomato imports, rather than setting a price for those imports.

Weather Impacts Tomato Prices, Supply

At the same time, he has been watching the weather for potential impacts, and of course watching tomato pricing out of Mexico, the US, and Canada.

“Florida hasn’t had a lot of tomatoes this year,” said Riehm, who alluded to the frost damage incurred by Sunshine State growers.

“They’re struggling with round and Roma tomatoes, and there’s a small window before they stop [harvesting] in June. So, [Mexican producers] have absorbed the costs, and the consumer is also paying for it one way or another.”

Mexican producers have also faced their own share of weather issues, said Riehm—contributing to a North American tomato market with less supply this year.

“We haven’t had great production out of Mexico… We’ve been at about 20% less availability for a lot of commodities… We’ve seen it in peppers and limes due to weather issues around Mexico. So, pricing has been stronger,” he said.

“We’ve had cold weather that has affected blossom drop for the future crop. It could be until this May before we see normal production from cold weather impacts and rain impacts.”

Over the last year, the value of grape tomatoes priced in the Chicago terminal has increased approximately 140-156% year-over-year (YOY) to 266.67 USc/Lb on the lower range – 275 USc/Lb on the higher range, according to the Expana platform.

The North American tomato market has also affected the pricing and availability of tomatoes in foodservice channels as well, said Riehm.

“The 25 Lb boxes of round tomatoes that buyers like Burger King uses for Whoppers are normally $20/box, and now they’re $60/box,” he claimed. “And some of the brands, like Hello Fresh, substituted grape tomatoes instead of round and Romas. I’ve seen them leave little notes to their food box customers that say their business has been impacted.”

Other Factors Contributing to Tomato Prices

The current price and availability of tomatoes in the US is not only subject to tariff costs and Trump administration policies, but also weather impacts and higher energy and shipping costs too, reported Expana. Riehm confirmed the factors affecting tomato prices and availability.

“We’re dealing with trucks and diesel… I’m paying $8,000 for truck shipments which were normally $5,000,” he said. “Also, a lot of drivers won’t drive toward California if they don’t speak English in fear of getting pulled over. So, we’ve lost a lot of drivers, which has driven freight prices higher to get tomatoes and produce to the US.”

Similar prices were given in a recent analysis piece by Expana’s Market Reporter, Laura Robb.

“Domestic freight costs are experiencing parallel increases driven primarily by fuel price escalations. Importers report receiving fuel surcharge notifications from Northeast producers scheduled to begin in mid-May, with some [vegetable importers] paying over $9,000 for domestic truck transportation to destination markets,” wrote Robb.

Background

On April 14, 2025, the US Department of Commerce announced the withdrawal from the 2019 Agreement Suspending the Antidumping Investigation on Fresh Tomatoes from Mexico, reported Expana.

In 1996, the US and Mexico inked the Tomato Suspension Agreement (TSA) after similar antidumping claims. This came before and is separate from the current US-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement (USMCA).

“Under the TSA, Mexican tomato producers agreed to sell fresh tomatoes in the US market at set reference prices, and in return, the US suspended the antidumping duty investigation,” according to Southern Ag Today.

Image source: Getty

China’s total beef imports for the first quarter of 2026 reached 869,079 metric tons (MT), representing a 27.5% year-on-year (YOY) volume increase as major suppliers raced to beat newly implemented tariff cliffs.

While total importsin March recorded a slight 7.7% month-on-month (MOM) decline to 241,277 MT following the Lunar New Year peak, the broader trend remains expansive.

However, this robust start is not a result of growing demand.

The high utilization of annual safeguard quotas confirms that the front-loading frenzy has continued into the close of Q1 as major suppliers raced to beat newly implemented tariff cliffs.

China’s Safeguard Framework Drives Early Volume Shifts

Beijing’s new safeguard policy, which took effect on January 1, 2026, has triggered a tactical shift among exporters. Under this framework, once a specific country exceeds its assigned annual quota, any additional shipments are hit with a prohibitive 55% tariff for the remainder of the year.

With approximately 32% of the year’s total global quota (set at roughly 2.688 million MT) already arriving in the first quarter, the industry is closely monitoring the exhaustion dates for China’s two largest suppliers.

China’s beef imports in March 2026 reached 241,277 MT, according to GACC. While this represented a 7.7% MOM retreat from the high volumes seen in the first two months of the year, it marked a robust 13.2% YOY increase.

Brazil underpinned the bulk of these arrivals with 139,948 MT, though it saw a 13.0% MOM dip as the post-Lunar New Year peak subsided.

Conversely, Australia recorded a significant 70.0% MOM surge to 33,342 MT, as exporters accelerated shipments to maximize duty-free access before the expected safeguard trigger later this year.

Argentina and Uruguay contributed 37,301 MT and 12,349 MT respectively, both seeing MOM declines, while New Zealand rounded out the major suppliers with 9,442 MT, a 43.1% MOM recovery from its February lows.

 

 

China’s Economic Headwinds and Internal Supply Surfeits

The current surge in volume stands in stark contrast to the market cooling seen in 2025, when total imports dipped to 2.80 million MT.

That contraction was largely a byproduct of a massive sell-off in China’s domestic cattle sector, which saturated the market with local beef.

In 2025, domestic beef production grew by 2.8% YOY to 8.01 million MT.

China’s livestock sector continued the strong pace set in 2025. The combined national output of pork, beef, mutton, and poultry reached 26.62 million metric tons in the first three months of the year, representing a significant 4.8% YOY increase according to the latest National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. 

This growth underscores a drive toward greater self-sufficiency that has successfully built upon the higher production trends observed over the previous year.

This internal oversupply is meeting a period of significant consumer restraint. Economic instability, fueled by a persistent real estate crisis has triggered a widespread consumption downgrade as middle-class households tighten spending.

Brazil Navigates Massive Volume and Quota Depletion

Given its massive export capacity, Brazil remains the central focus for market participants.

By the end of Q1, Brazilian volumes reached 512,032 MT, accounting for 46.3% of its 1,106,000 MT annual allowance.

Although March shipments dipped by 13.0% MOM, Brazil’s quarterly performance reflects a 65.8% YOY surge, largely due to the clearance of backlogs from late 2025.

With nearly half of its quota exhausted in only three months, many market participants expect Brazil to trigger the 55% tariff rate from July August 2026.

Australia: Led the Pace in Duty-Free Exhaustion

Australia exhausted its duty-free allowance at the fastest rate of any major partner, posing the most immediate risk of hitting the safeguard limit.

Year-to-date (YTD) volumes hit 105,267 MT, a 32.3% YOY increase, meaning 51.3% of its 205,000 MT allocation was already gone by the end of March.

A 70.0% MOM jump in March suggested a strategic push by Australian exporters to maximize trade while the duty-free window remained open.

Market expectations indicated that should the Australian quota be reached between from June, New Zealand would become the only regional alternative capable of supplying prompt cargoes with duty-free capacity for the second half of the year.

Argentina and Uruguay: Lower Risk Profiles

The risk profile for Argentina and Uruguay was notably lower due to more measured utilization rates.

Argentina consumed 27.5% of its quota with 140,502 MT shipped YTD, while Uruguay utilized only 14.7% (47,534 MT) of its 324,000 MT allocation.

These suppliers maintained more consistent shipping patterns, leaving substantial buffers for the remainder of the calendar year.

New Zealand Supply Constraints Limit Safe-Haven Potential

New Zealand similarly faced minimal risk of triggering the safeguard, with 28,770 MT shipped YTD, filling 14.0% of its 206,000 MT quota by the end of the quarter.

However, New Zealand’s ability to fill the gap likely to be left by other suppliers was hampered by lower domestic cattle kills.

Furthermore, the diversion of available supply toward more profitable margins in the United States continued to limit the volume of product destined for the Chinese market.

The Regulatory Barriers Stifled US Trade Recovery

Finally, the United States continued to see minimal trade recovery despite recent policy shifts.

Following the removal of retaliatory tariffs, YTD shipments remained negligible at just 544 MT.

This lack of momentum was primarily due to ongoing regulatory hurdles, as the majority of US processing plants still awaited the renewal of lapsed registration permits (CIFER) required for entry into the Chinese market.

Please note that import figures may vary from export data published by other official sources due to differences in the methodologies used by each entity/organization for collecting and reporting data.

 

Expana provides regular beef market coverage for the geographies listed in this analysis. For full access, get in touch. 

China’s total beef imports in January and February 2026 reached 627,803 metric tons (MT), representing a 23.4% utilization of the total annual safeguard quota, according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs (GACC).

The current year-to-date (YTD) figures show a robust 34.0% volume increase year-on-year (YOY) as key suppliers raced to beat the newly implemented tariff “cliffs.”

 

China’s Safeguard Quota Crunch

China’s figures for the first two months of the calendar year were released together, as is customary to account for Lunar New Year distortions.

However, the underlying trend is clear: Beijing’s new safeguard policy, which kicked in on New Year’s Day, has triggered a “front-loading” frenzy among major suppliers.

Under this policy, any country exceeding its specific annual quota will be hit with a prohibitive 55% tariff for the remainder of the year.

China’s Domestic Glut & the Spending Squeeze

This fast start follows a cooling period in 2025, where beef imports totaled 2.80 million MT, a 2.5% yearly decline. This contraction was driven by a record liquidation of China’s domestic cattle herd, which flooded the market with local beef.

This shift is underpinned by an ongoing ‘consumption downgrade’, a trend gaining momentum since the pandemic as the property-market crisis and rising economic uncertainty continue to hollow out middle-class spending power.

This shift was accelerated by the official ban on alcohol introduced back in mid-May 2025. The policy has since created a chilling effect across the corporate and government sectors, continuing to impede spending on high-end beef in fine dining and banquets, segments that historically underpin demand for premium imported cuts.

(i) Brazil: The Heavyweight Sprint

Brazil remains the primary market focus due to its sheer scale.

Despite holding the largest quota allocation of 1,106,000 MT, YTD volumes have already reached 372,083 MT, or 33.6% filled.

Volumes from Brazil saw a whopping 75.8% YOY surge, underpinned by a record-high in January 2026 taking into account cargoes previously held back in late 2025 due to stricter inspections which delayed clearance. 

Having utilized roughly one third of its annual quota in just two months, shipments for the same period already totaled 223,426 MT, which is notably above previous year.

“Market participants estimated that Brazil could be on track to reach the quota limit by early Q3”, South American Red Meat Analyst, Augusto Eto said.

(ii) Australia: The Fastest Usage Pace

Australia currently faces the most immediate risk of exhaustion, burning through its allowance at the fastest pace of any major supplier.

With a YTD volume of 71,925 MT, it has already consumed 35.1% of its 205,000 MT allocation.

“At this pace, market expectations now suggest that Australia is likely to reach its ‘tariff wall’ by late May or early June, well ahead of its competitors,” Asia Pacific Red Meat Analyst, Junie Lin said.

“This compressed timeline effectively forces a strategic pivot; as the door slams shut on Australian volumes, New Zealand stands alone as the only neighboring alternative capable of providing a duty-free, risk-free pipeline for the remainder of the year.”, she added.

Inbound tonnage from Australia has seen a 27.6% YTD increase, similarly reaching a record-high volume in January 2026 as China cleared a backlog of shipments that had faced enhanced customs checks.

(iii) Argentina and Uruguay: Lower Risk Profiles

In contrast, volumes from Argentina and Uruguay pose a much lower risk factor due to slower utilization and larger relative buffers.

Argentina has used 20.2% of its quota, maintaining a steady flow of 103,201 MT YTD.

Uruguay remains the least exposed major South American player, having utilized only 10.9% (35,185 MT) of its 324,000 MT allocation, leaving ample room for year-end surges.

(iv) New Zealand: The Safe-Haven Option

With only 9.4% of its quota used YTD (19,328 MT), NZ exporters face virtually zero risk of triggering the safeguard tariff in 2026.

This frames New Zealand as the only ‘guaranteed’ duty-free source for the second half of the year once Australia hits its limits.

However, the real bottleneck for New Zealand is a lack of tangible product to export, as cattle kills are currently trailing almost 13% behind last year.

Furthermore, the lure of better margins in the United States (US) is actively diverting available supply away from the Chinese market.

(v) The United States: A Pipeline in Limbo

For the US, 2026 is proving that policy wins don’t always translate to trade volumes. 

Following a 2025 where shipments nearly careened to a halt due to a “tariff blitz” and expired import permits, the market remains stifled.

While the Kuala Lumpur Agreement in November 2025 saw China agree to remove retaliatory tariffs, the recovery has been non-existent in the data.

YTD 2026 shipments sit at a negligible 332 MT (0.2% quota usage). 

Yet, now in 2026, only still-eligible pipeline products are allowed entry, as the majority of US plants are still awaiting the renewal of lapsed CIFER registrations.

 

*Please note that import figures may vary from export data published by other official sources due to differences in the methodologies used by each entity/organization for collecting and reporting data.

Image source: Adobe

As China signals a harder line on beef imports with a steep 55% tariff on shipments exceeding country-specific quotas, Brazil and Australia stand out as the suppliers most susceptible to disruption.  

This latest safeguard measure, announced by the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) on December 31, stands to reconfigure trade flows by curbing import volumes to China, the world’s largest beef market.  

In this analysis, we examine the potential market impacts, and what to expect for global beef markets in the months ahead. 

 

China’s Safeguard Tariff Explained 

Under the new safeguard framework, Beijing has introduced a 55% tariff on beef imports from the countries listed in the table above for shipments exceeding their allocated quota, effective January 1, 2026, according to the ministry. 

The quota will remain in place for three years, covering 2026 through 2028, with volumes and conditions set to be gradually adjusted during this period in accordance with the safeguard regulations. 

 

Early Trade Reactions & Future Trade Shifts 

While not a blanket restriction, the policy sharply raises costs on volumes above quota limits, creating a clear disincentive for late arriving cargoes and surplus shipments.  

Unlike traditional tariffs, the quota-triggered structure is already starting to distort trade behavior in the first week of the 2026 calendar year. 

Anticipating tighter supply, importers are aiming to front load shipments to avoid the penalty, potentially inflating near term volumes before a sharp slowdown once thresholds are reached.  

“Market participants (Brazil to China) reported a surge in enquiries and price discussions were seen trending up as much as 10% this week.” South American Red Meat Analyst, Augusto Eto said.  

Meanwhile, in Australia, the safeguard announcement came as many of the most affected suppliers were caught up in year-end Christmas and New Year closures.  

“Australian packers are slowly responding to the market shifts, but buying interest from China have shown a clear uplift,” said Asia Pacific Red Meat Analyst, Junie Lin. 

The Chinese domestic market has also responded in tandem to the safeguard measures, driving imported beef prices up strongly since last week. 

 

Winners and Losers in the Beef Trade 

Larger importers with stronger logistics control, cash reserves, and customer relationships are better positioned, while smaller players face greater exposure to tariff risk and may lack the funds to front-load shipments quickly.  

Prior to the safeguard announcement, prolonged customs delays under China’s “Enhanced Supervision List” had already pushed up port and service fees, tightening cash flow and slowing logistics ahead of February’s Lunar New Year, which typically marks peak demand for red meat. 

Significant volumes shipped last year are pending customs clearance and are expected to count toward the quota once released, meaning a substantial portion of the 2026 quota is already effectively taken up. 

Given the high 55% tariff rate, the cost penalty for exceeding quotas is substantial, reinforcing the likelihood that China-bound volumes from all affected origins will be curtailed once quotas fill. 

Import volumes are expected to surge early in the year, then taper sharply as quotas are filled, producing a lop-sided trade pattern. 

A Chinese importer told Expana the import quota may be filled as early as May or June this year.  

 (i) Brazil and Australia 

For an extrapolation standpoint, based on China’s cumulative beef imports this year through November, only Brazil and Australia would have already exceeded the quota volumes defined for 2026, with entries totaling 1,329,371 mt and 294,957 mt, respectively. Brazil would have crossed its quota threshold in October, while Australia would have done so earlier, in August. 

Brazil, as China’s largest beef supplier by volume, is likely to bear the heaviest impact. Its trade is dominated by frozen beef, which is more price sensitive and less able to absorb a sudden cost increase. 

For Australia, the move comes at a sensitive point in the export cycle. Its long-standing free trade agreement (FTA) initially capped the safeguard tariff at 12%, but the measure has now been applied at 55%. 

China has become a fast-growing market for its grain-fed beef, helping to offset the absence of American beef, which has been largely held back since trade tensions escalated last April. 

Australian beef might hold its footing slightly longer due to quality differentiation through its grain-fed beef and chilled offerings, though price resistance from Chinese buyers is expected to rise sharply as quotas tighten. 

 (ii) New Zealand 

New Zealand is among the least affected by the imposed safeguard tariff, with year-to-date (YTD) shipments at roughly half of its allotted quota. 

Once China’s top market for beef, New Zealand has ceded first place to the United State (US), where higher netbacks have made exports more attractive.  

The US removal of a 15% reciprocal tariff since late November 2025 has further strengthened New Zealand’s shipments to the US over China. 

New Zealand may face a difficult 1st half of 2025 as market attention centers on its key competitor Australia, but the second half could potentially bring stronger sales once other exporters fill their quotas. 

 (iii) The United States  

US beef faces a different challenge. 

With its cattle-herd at a 70-year low, constrained production has already limited its competitiveness in China, and unrenewed licenses amid the ongoing Sino-US tensions sidelined American beef throughout 2025, leaving it with just a 2.1% market share.  

Conditions are unlikely to improve until political tensions thaw further. 

 

China’s Internal Market Drivers 

This safeguard policy also mirrors broader demand trends in China.  

China’s falling pork prices, the staple protein for 1.41 billion people, have constrained beef consumption growth. 

China’s prolonged property market slump has further eroded household wealth and confidence, restraining demand for beef.   

While intended to regulate imports and support domestic producers, the safeguard policy now risks backfiring as market players rush to accelerate shipments ahead of quota limits. 

Post-Quota Implications 

Beyond China, the ripple effects are likely to be felt across global beef markets.  

Once quotas are filled, China might effectively ease off imports and gradually rely on its inventories.  

Brazil, the world’s largest beef exporter, is expected to focus on other key markets, deepen trade ties and open market access with regions less affected by China’s safeguard measures, potentially at the expense of Australia’s market foothold.  

Displaced volumes are likely to be redirected to the US, Canada, Asia, the Middle East, and parts of the European Union (EU) and United Kingdom (UK), most likely in the latter part of the year.  

Initial buying in these regions may be subdued, shifting toward inventory replenishment in the second half, especially in price-sensitive markets like Japan and Korea with weaker currencies. 

 

Market Watchpoints 

The coming months will test how effectively exporters can time and diversify shipments as China clamps down on import quotas.  

The key variable now is also how quickly quotas are filled and whether Chinese authorities will adjust thresholds as trade evolves throughout the year. 

For Brazil, one possible consideration under discussion with Chinese authorities is the opening of additional markets, including access for beef and pork offal. 

Down Under, Australian packers are hoping that Canberra could lobby China to ease the new restrictions, especially during scheduled talks between the two economies later this year. 

Progress in EU trade talks could also help offset the effects of China’s safeguard measures, after previous federal efforts to secure a new FTA have so far stalled. 

 

Co-authored by: 

Junie Lin
Expana
junie.lin@expanamarkets.com

Joe Muldowney
Expana
1-732-240-5330 ext. 244
joe.muldowney@expanamarkets.com

Bill Smith
Expana
732-575-1977
bill.smith@expanamarkets.com

Image source: Getty

Recent tariff policy changes in the US reshaped market conditions for Brazilian beef suppliers. Earlier in the year, Brazil had faced a sharp slowdown in beef exports to the US after reciprocal tariffs were introduced. In the latest policy changes last week, the US announced new reciprocal trade frameworks across Central and South America and selected Asian markets. Initially, Brazil remained subject to the separate 40% additional tariff, which was also lifted later in the week, fully aligning Brazil with the new tariff-free conditions. 

Brazilian fresh beef exports to the US lost momentum and dropped substantially since the announcement of the 10% reciprocal tariff earlier this year, with the additional 40% tariff adding further pressure.  

Despite that, overall beef shipments increased notably throughout 2025, with China being the key driver. Markets like Mexico, Chile, Egypt and other countries also grew significantly, which helped to narrow the gap created by weaker US volumes. Only this year, Brazil registered record fresh beef export levels three times, in July, September and October. 

 

Nevertheless, on a YTD basis, the United States still remains the second largest destination for Brazilian beef, reflecting the large volumes shipped earlier in the year. In addition, over the last couple of months, shipments to the US have rebounded, which historically could be expected for this period as shipments aim to enter the US market when the annual quota is renewed. Earlier in 2025, the 65,000 mt quota exempt from the 26.4% tariff for imports from “other countries,” including Brazil, was rapidly filled up within the first three weeks of January.  

 

Since the “liberation day”, negotiations for Brazilian beef to the United States had been more limited due to the elevated duty burden faced by Brazil (10% reciprocal tariff + 40% additional tariff on Brazil + 26.4% out-of-quota tariff = 76.4%). Following the recent tariff adjustments, expectations of improved negotiating opportunities were renewed, and market participants have already restarted conversations regarding forward shipments. Although it is very likely that upcoming volumes may no longer enter under the quota, discussions have resumed as suppliers reassess conditions under the updated tariff framework. 

Co-authored by: 

Bill Smith
Expana
732-575-1977
bill.smith@expanamarkets.com

On Thursday November 20, the White House signed an order to remove the 40% tariff on a variety of Brazilian agricultural products, which included beef. This announcement came after reciprocal tariffs were lifted on November 13, allowing other major beef exporters like Australia, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Argentina, and Uruguay to no longer contend with an extra 10-18% tariff depending on the origin.  

US domestic beef prices have reached record highs as cattle supplies in the region are lower given the cyclical nature of cattle supply and prices. US imported beef prices have also reached record high price levels.   

Earlier in the year, Australia and Brazil competed for the top spot as the US beef supplier. The “other country” quota, which is dominated by Brazilian product coming out of bond and entering under a freshly reset quota for the year, filled just 17 days into the year, indicating that upwards of 60,000 mt or more of Brazilian product was available in the country. Brazil’s monthly exports to the US fell off significantly once the additional tariff was imposed.  

The last complete month of data illustrates the divide that was present during the tariffs. In October, Brazil passed merely 3,605 mt of boneless beef into the US while Australia’s figure was 25,897 mt. Since then, Australia has sent product to the US into a strong and advancing market. With the recent change, Brazil now faces a similar tariff structure to what existed earlier in the year, paying a 26.4% out of quota duty on beef passed for entry during the remainder of 2026 while no longer incurring an extra tariff, meaning that there could be more competition with an increased supply flow from different origins.  

This announcement also comes just a month and a half before the new year when quotas will be reset. Historically, Brazilian packers rush product here ahead of time to enter material before the quota fills again. This year, the “other country” quota will have a 13,000 mt set aside for UK beef, leaving 52,000 mt for all other origins without their own set quota.  

The removal of Brazilian tariffs was to increase supply and manage some of the increased food costs that US consumers have begun to see. As it took time for prices to increase and include the full value of the tariff, it has yet to be seen the impact that new tariff rules on Brazil are having on the overall market.

Image source: Getty

Country‑level shrimp import estimates through October show a post‑frontload correction: modeled volumes for September and October are down roughly 10% and 18% year‑on‑year, respectively, while year‑to‑date imports are up about 8% but essentially flat (+3.6%) since May. Ecuador’s volumes increase relative to other origins; India, Indonesia and Vietnam display divergent month‑to‑month paths. Model error ranges vary roughly between 9% and 18% by origin, depending on the data history. Finalized customs data and country export splits remain pending.

The tariff environment is a dominant structural factor. The 50% tariff on Indian shrimp alters competitive flows and affects margins across origin sources. Ongoing regulatory actions and shipment delays from specific origins contribute to the reallocation of trade flows and sustained price support for certain formats.

Seasonal patterns and the August–October estimates show a counter‑seasonal downtrend following the spring/summer frontrun. Reduced inflows after front‑loading shrink the supply buffer and concentrate pressure on specific counts and finished formats rather than on headline import totals.

Near-term considerations center on visibility by form and size, as well as commercial flexibility. Firms with exposure to peeled, cooked and EZ‑formats trade in a firmer price environment and maintain coverage strategies; HLSO spot trading in the US shows softer pricing with different regional dynamics in Europe. Modeling uncertainty persists until the final country‑level data are released. Tariff permanence and origin‑specific regulatory developments remain key variables that influence flow allocation and price support across formats. 

Form‑level data show a bifurcated market. HLSO wholesale spot trading in the US is soft, consistent with available immediate‑delivery inventory. Peeled, cooked and EZ‑peel categories register firmer wholesale prices and tighter availability, with buyers paying premiums for finished formats. Shell‑on volumes exhibit the largest year‑on‑year swings across origins, while peeled volumes are stronger in 2025 year‑to‑date versus recent years. Aggregate tonnage masks concentrated shortfalls by form and size that affect sourcing and shelf continuity. 

Retail indicators align with wholesale movements. Circana and ad‑price tracking report a roughly 5% year‑on‑year increase in retail paid prices in October, the highest level in five years, accompanied by the lowest promotional activity since 2014. Historical pass-through rates indicate that about half of a wholesale price move is transferred to consumer prices. Wholesale prices have risen by more than 20% since April, and partial retail pass-through is observable in current data. 

Image source: Getty

The Expana US Packaging Category Index (ECI) rose by 0.7% month-on-month (m-o-m) and 5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in August to $1,718/mt. A steady increase in the index has been observed since June, driven by tariff policy. The main growth driver is metal packaging, which was hit with 50% import tariffs. In August, warehouse prices for aluminum cans increased by 1.8% m-o-m and 10.3% y-o-y, foil rose by 1.6% m-o-m and 30.5% y-o-y, and tinplate on the spot market jumped 4.5% m-o-m and 18.2% y-o-y. Prices for packaging paper were relatively stable m-o-m, but still grew 2–10% y-o-y depending on the product.

Metal tariffs are driving up the US packaging index. Compared to the global packaging index, the difference increased to $300/mt in August from $252/mt in May. It is therefore clear that the introduction of tariffs creates rising packaging costs in the US.

Demand for packaging materials in the US remains stable, but cost pressure is intensifying against the backdrop of rising tariffs. In 2025, the main consumption drivers remain the food, pharmaceutical, and e-commerce sectors. Sales in these categories continue to expand; retail trade volumes rose 3.9% y-o-y in July, while the Food Production Index has been growing steadily since the start of 2025, adding about 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q). This underpins sustained demand for primary and secondary packaging made of paper, board, and lightweight plastics.

On the cost side, producers are facing higher raw material costs, primarily due to stricter tariff policy. In the first half of 2025, aluminum and steel tariffs were raised to 50%, directly affecting can and foil packaging producers. Imports of aluminum scrap, which are not yet subject to tariffs, are containing further price growth. However, the gap between global and domestic prices is widening, reducing competitiveness.

In the paper market, the US still has excess capacity, which generates high supply, although about 6% of containerboard capacity has been removed since the start of 2025. These closures boosted both industrial production and capacity utilization as demand from shuttered mills shifted elsewhere. Consumer and retailer packaging preferences are shifting toward paper in the long term, thanks to recyclability and low-carbon manufacturing. EPR laws in some states are starting to provide financial incentives for using more recyclable materials, including paper.

Plastic producers are cutting production to match demand. In July, the US Manufacture of Plastics Products Index fell by 1.6% m-o-m, representing a 4.3% y-o-y decrease. Some disruptions were reported throughout the month, and sources remain cautious about hurricane impacts, with Hurricane Erin forming in August but causing no damage to plastics manufacturing. Export demand for plastics, however, is growing. Total exports of ethylene and propylene polymers increased in June by 7.7% m-o-m, representing a 7.2% y-o-y rise. Ethylene polymer exports rose by 9.0% m-o-m, while propylene polymer exports fell by 0.5% m-o-m.

Glass container manufacturing costs in the US fell by 0.6% m-o-m in August. The decrease was attributable to lower energy prices, particularly in the natural gas market, which had a bearish impact on overall glass manufacturing costs. Sales of alcoholic beverages rose slightly, according to the latest data from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. However, the long-term trend shows decline, with glass container manufacturing also falling, showing supply decreasing to balance sluggish demand.

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Market sources told Expana that China is still planning to impose a 75.8% anti-dumping duty on Canadian canola seed from August 14, a move that industry sources say will make new sales to China virtually impossible. The announcement triggered a sharp sell-off in ICE canola futures and Matif rapeseed prices, with IJX25 dropping to its lowest level since April and briefly entering oversold territory, brokers and analysts reported. Several traders noted that the Canada-EU arbitrage opened rapidly, with European buyers shifting focus toward Canadian-origin seed driven by its relative ‘cheapness’ compared to domestic supply. 

In the absence of Chinese demand, participants said the EU is now the primary outlet for displaced Canadian canola, resulting in a glut of supply weighing on regional values and crush margins. Some crushers told Expana they are considering a move to alternative oilseeds such as sunflower, which currently offers more attractive margins. If this shift becomes widespread, several buyers noted it could further tighten rapeseed oil availability, even amid strong European crop performance. 

Conversely, contacts in China told Expana that local rapeseed oil prices have surged amid concerns about securing future supply. Although Australia is preparing to resume canola exports to China after a five-year absence, market participants cautioned that these volumes may be insufficient to meet China’s demand. Expana sources indicated at least 250,000 mt of Australian canola could move as a ‘trial’ shipment, with most traders viewing the arrangement as “virtually a done deal.” However, Chinese buyers are said to be actively seeking other origins, such as Ukraine, fuelling what several traders described as a “scramble for supply.” 

Despite the headline risk, several players and brokers expressed scepticism to Expana regarding the duration of China’s tariff measures. Many highlighted parallels with previous Chinese trade tactics, notably during electric vehicle tariff negotiations with the EU, where anti-dumping announcements were used as leverage and then quickly dropped. The prevailing sentiment among market players is that China may be using tariff threats as bargaining power ahead of scheduled negotiations with Canada in two weeks’ time. One analyst commented that, if Canadian seed is blocked for an extended period, prices would need to fall further, which they haven’t done thus far, to redirect surplus supply globally, potentially underpinning the transient nature of the policy as some believe.  

Market sources also suggested that the announcement, while causing immediate volatility, provided a short-term buying opportunity and is unlikely to materially alter supply and demand fundamentals in the medium term. For the EU, specific concern centres on the potential for significant changes in the rapeseed oil GM/non-GM supply-demand balance, particularly within food and feed markets. 

Additionally, Expana has learned that Canada’s agriculture and trade ministers met with representatives from the canola industry and farming groups on 13 August, highlighting the significance and uncertainty around ongoing developments. 

In summary, while China’s tariff announcement has intensified near-term volatility and market speculation, most participants have told Expana they are focused on the outcome of upcoming negotiations. The risk remains that either an extension or reversal of China’s anti-dumping duty could materially impact canola and rapeseed trade flows for the remainder of the season.

The US market annually imports approximately 100,000 metric tons of canned or prepared tuna from 39 countries. As of 2024, the primary suppliers are Thailand, Vietnam, and Ecuador, with market shares of 48.5%, 10.8%, and 7.5%, respectively.

Fig1. Year-to-date (Jan-Jun) import of canned or prepped tuna into the US in metric tons. Source: Census US 

Prior to the introduction of reciprocal tariffs, there was a differential tariff structure based on the type of canned tuna: 6% for canned tuna in brine or water and 35% for canned tuna in oil, as noted in the United States International Trade Commission’s 2025 Harmonized Tariff Schedule. However, this base rate can vary depending on existing trade agreements. 

The initial proposal for reciprocal tariffs suggested rates of 36% for Thailand, 46% for Vietnam, and 10% for Ecuador. According to an announcement from the White House on July 31, 2025, the finalized tariff structure is as follows: 

Country	Reciprocal Tariffs July 31, 2025
Thailand	19%
Vietnam	20%
Ecuador	15%

These new tariff conditions may influence existing trade trends for canned tuna in the US. In recent months, the market for skipjack tuna in Thailand has been unstable due to uncertainty surrounding US tariffs. The latest price for the Thai skipjack, according to the Expana Benchmark Prices, was assessed at $1,550 per metric ton at the end of July, marking a 3.3% month-over-month increase. Market participants have indicated that the main drivers for this price increase include the ongoing Fish Aggregating Device (FAD) ban, which will continue until August, and a slowdown in landings. Additionally, purchasing activities for canned tuna in Thailand have been affected in recent months by negotiations related to US tariffs.   

Conversely, a noted increase in purchasing activity was observed in the US ahead of the imposition of reciprocal tariffs (Figure 1), leading to an overall increase in canned tuna imports by 18.5% year-to-date (January to June). Among the top three sources, imports from Thailand, Vietnam, and Ecuador rose by 19.8%, 30.0%, and 61.6%, respectively. 

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